Covid-19's Surprising Shift: Why It's Becoming Milder

As Covid-19 spreads over the world, it appears to be decreasing, with fewer individuals being hospitalized. Despite the improved type, specialists warn that hospitalizations have decreased, but COVID-19 remains a constant hazard. Let's take a closer look at the changing scene and what lies ahead in the next few years.

A New Variant XEC:

In the fall of 2024, a new form of Covid-19, XEC, appeared. This was reportedly a hybrid of two earlier Omicron subvariants: everybody's experts were concerned that it might make some immune systems developed through earlier waves or vaccines against a set of earlier Omicron descendants, like JN.1 and KP.2, less effective.

However, Kei Sato, a professor of virology at the University of Tokyo, said that XEC seemed to offer the possibility "to bypass the immune defense of previous infections"; and this provoked alarm in many scientists. Although the early feeling was that some disaster was surely going to emerge, the complex reality was completely different.

Unexpectedly Low Rates of Hospitalizations:

While XEC was spreading widely in the population, a surge in hospitalizations did not follow, especially after the Thanksgiving holiday weekend in the US. Sewage monitoring revealed that the virus was spreading in major cities, but hospitalizations remained unusually low. According to CDC data, hospitalization rates have dropped significantly, from 6.1 per 100,000 people in December 2023 to only 2 per 100,000 people in December 2024.

They were perplexed by this inconsistency. A professor of epidemiology at the University of California, San Francisco, Peter Chin-Hong, explained that even with the quantity of COVID-19 detected, it almost seemed as if the disease was less intense. The increased spread due to exposure and a more "hostile" environment towards the virus might be another contributor to this.

COVID in 2025: A Milder Disease

It indicates that Covid-19 has become less virulent in 2025. Older symptoms such as loss of smell and taste are less common these days, while most people contract mild cold-like symptoms that would be mistaken for seasonal allergies. Older adults especially those above the age of 75 and people with immunosuppression remain more at risk, however, most cases of infection currently result in no symptoms or in mild illness only.

Chin-Hong observed that, while XEC appears to result in milder disease, the virus is still pathogenic enough to cause significant illness in at-risk populations. Furthermore, there is a chance of Long COVID, and the fact that the virus is still evolving means that new variants could shift the direction of the pandemic.

Changing the Face of COVID for Hospitals:

Treatments for COVID-19 have evolved over the past couple of years. Protocols for treating patients at the hospital evolve with the virus. That is, treatment protocols no longer use anticoagulants anymore, which are usually given to Covid patients to prevent clotting. Currently, antivirals are the main focus of care, and steroids such as dexamethasone are reserved for critical cases. Hospital stays are now shorter, as COVID increasingly causes mild upper respiratory symptoms rather than severe pneumonia or cardiovascular issues.

Understanding the Milder Response to XEC:

Although the infections caused by COVID-19 are ubiquitous, some virologists are still not able to identify why the virus is less severe. Marc Johnson, a molecular virologist at the University of Missouri, did air sampling in various locations and reported that COVID is still circulating regularly. However, most infections seem to be "blunted" by the immune system before they can cause serious harm.

Kei Sato postulated that one key factor might be the rising immunity in the population, partly because of the vaccines and repeated exposure to the virus. Now the immune system in the body recognizes and nullifies the virus with less virulence. Chin-Hong believes this rising immunity is also an important factor in decreasing rates of Long Covid, where the immune system doesn't let the virus persist for long periods in the body and hence does not result in damage lasting over a long period.

COVID’s Evolution: From Pandemic to Endemic?

It might be the case that COVID-19 turns into a relatively milder illness with time and is no more different than a common cold. The nature of evolution in coronaviruses tends to be more predictable compared to influenza, as they tend not to have dramatic, sudden shifts in evolution like influenza. Scientists predict that while immunity improves over the population, the severity of COVID-19 may even be further reduced despite new variants like XEC arising.

However, there are still uncertainties regarding what may occur in the future. If an older strain of COVID-19, such as the Delta form, resurfaces, it may trigger a larger wave of disease due to its unfamiliarity with the immune system. Johnson expressed fear that if an earlier strain gained popularity, immunity may be "confused," perhaps leading to more severe consequences.

The Potential for COVID to Become a Gastrointestinal Disease:

Johnson also guessed that COVID may take an even weirder turn. He stated that some initial indications show that the virus can eventually adapt to spread through the gastrointestinal tract, just like any other fecal-oral virus, such as norovirus and hepatitis A. This could be because coronaviruses, in their evolutionary past, were not strictly respiratory viruses but were rather enteric (gut) viruses.

Although this is still speculative, Johnson's research on wastewater surveillance suggests that the virus may sometimes persist in the gut of infected individuals, leading to persistent gastrointestinal infections. This could open the door to new modes of transmission, although experts caution that this is not likely to happen soon.

The Ongoing Importance of Vaccination:

As the severity of COVID-19 decreases for the majority of people, doctors continue to underline the need for immunization. Annual booster doses are still advised, especially among sensitive populations. Additionally, researchers are working on the next generation of vaccines, including mucosal vaccines that could prevent transmission of the virus and severe illness.

Chin-Hong said we are seeing the overall decline of severe cases but Covid-19 is still risky for some groups, especially older people and the immunocompromised. The future directions of the virus are unknown, and there is a continued call for vigilance, improved therapeutics, and continued research to stay one step ahead of the virus

Conclusion:

Entering the fourth year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world can well note that this virus is evolving. Despite the milder form of the new variant XEC, it does not at all indicate an end to the pandemic. The scientific fraternity is studying the evolution of the virus. The measures undertaken in public health and vaccination have remained indispensable in curbing its progress. Long COVID, or other future complications and the emergence of new challenges from this virus, can no longer be ruled out