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New Poll Shows Tight Texas Senate Race: Talarico vs. Paxton

A recent Fox News poll indicates a competitive race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, showing a narrow margin among likely voters.

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High angle view of the neoclassical ornate interior of the Texas State Capitol in Austin, Texas.
Photo: Trac Vu / Pexels Illustrative stock photo, not taken at the event.

Quick facts

  • Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 53-46 among registered voters in a new Fox News poll.
  • Among likely voters, the margin narrows to 51-49 in favor of Talarico.
  • The poll shows Donald Trump with a 44-55 approval rating among Texans.

Why it matters

The polling data reflects a potential shift in Texas voting patterns, particularly concerning the influence of national political figures on local races. While the numbers suggest a competitive environment, historical trends in Texas statewide elections provide a significant counter-narrative that suggests the race may remain difficult for Democrats to flip.

A recent Fox News poll has drawn significant attention to the Texas Senate race, showing a tightening contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. The data indicates that Talarico holds a lead among both registered and likely voters, marking a notable shift in a state where Democrats have not won a statewide election in decades.

What do the latest poll numbers show?

According to the survey, Talarico leads Paxton 53-46 among registered voters. When focusing on likely voters, the gap shrinks to 51-49. These figures have sparked intense discussion among political commentators regarding the potential competitiveness of the race in the final stretch.

Why is this race trending?

The poll is generating interest because it highlights broader trends in Texas, including the current standing of national figures. The data shows Donald Trump with a 44-55 approval rating in the state. Furthermore, the survey indicates that Trump is underwater with non-college voters and Latino voters, groups that were previously key to his performance in the region.

What does this mean for the election?

The poll suggests that non-MAGA Republicans may be less engaged than the broader Texas electorate, with only 50 percent reporting that they are extremely interested in the election. Analysts are monitoring these trends to see if the current polling gap persists as the election date approaches, though the ultimate impact on the final turnout remains to be determined.

Frequently asked questions

What do the latest Texas Senate polls show?

A recent Fox News poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 53-46 among registered voters. Among likely voters, the lead is tighter at 51-49.

Who are the candidates in this race?

The candidates featured in the recent polling are Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, who are competing for a Senate seat in the state of Texas.

Why is the Texas Senate race considered competitive?

The race is considered competitive because current polling shows a narrow margin between the candidates among likely voters, which differs from traditional expectations for statewide elections in Texas.

What does the poll say about Donald Trump's popularity in Texas?

The Fox News poll indicates that Donald Trump has a 44-55 approval rating in Texas, showing him underwater among several key demographics including Latino and non-college voters.

Are the poll results final?

No, poll results are snapshots of public opinion at a specific time. They do not predict the final outcome of the election, and actual results depend on voter turnout and other variables.

What is the margin among likely voters?

The Fox News poll shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton by two percentage points, 51-49, among likely voters in the state of Texas.

In this story

Sources

Last checked Oct 3, 2026 at 12:02 AM. Trends move fast, so details may change. How we work

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