Melbourne Weather: Heavy Rain and Storms Forecast
Melbourne faces a high risk of flooding and storms as heavy rain moves across south-east Australia following a record dry September.
Quick facts
- Melbourne recorded 20mm of rainfall in one hour on Thursday afternoon.
- September 2026 was the second-driest September on record for the region.
- A low-pressure system is expected to impact south-east Australia over the next 48 hours.
Why it matters
The transition from a record-dry month to a severe storm event is typical of the volatility seen in south-east Australian weather patterns during spring. The sudden shift underscores the vulnerability of the region to rapid hydrological changes after extended dry spells. Broader implications for infrastructure and local events, such as the Turnbull Stakes, remain subject to the severity of the rainfall.
Melbourne is currently bracing for a significant weather event as a low-pressure system brings heavy rain and the threat of flooding to south-east Australia. The sudden downpour follows a period of extreme dryness, with only 18mm of rain recorded in Melbourne throughout the entire month of September.
What happened in Melbourne?
On Thursday afternoon, Melbourne experienced an intense burst of rainfall, with 20mm falling in just one hour between 2pm and 3pm. According to ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders, this is part of a larger, slow-moving weather system currently affecting the southern Murray Basin. The system is drawing in tropical moisture, which is expected to result in moderate to heavy rainfall across northern and eastern Victoria over the coming 48 hours.
Why is the weather trending?
The weather is a major concern for residents due to the potential for flash flooding and damaging wind gusts. Isolated thunderstorms are developing along the leading edge of the rainband. While the risk of large hail and damaging winds is present, the primary focus for authorities remains the accumulation of intense rainfall across the region. Campers and those in low-lying areas have been urged to remain alert as conditions develop.
What happens next?
Meteorologists indicate that heavy rain will persist across northern and eastern Victoria throughout today. The slow movement of the system means that rainfall totals could continue to rise. Emergency services are monitoring the situation closely as the rainband moves across the south-east corner of New South Wales. Residents are advised to stay updated with local warnings for the most current information regarding flood risks.
Frequently asked questions
Why is Melbourne experiencing heavy rain?
A low-pressure system situated over the southern Murray Basin is drawing tropical moisture into south-east Australia. The system's slow movement is concentrating heavy rainfall and storm activity across Victoria and parts of New South Wales.
How much rain fell in Melbourne on Thursday?
Melbourne received 20mm of rain in a single hour between 2pm and 3pm on Thursday, October 1, 2026. This followed a month where only 18mm of rain had been recorded for the entirety of September.
Is there a flood risk for Melbourne?
Yes, meteorologists have warned that the current weather system, characterized by slow-moving rainbands and isolated thunderstorms, could trigger flash flooding across south-east Australia over a 48-hour period ending this weekend.
What are the risks associated with the storms?
The primary risks identified by meteorologists include flash flooding and damaging wind gusts. There is also a lesser risk of large hail occurring as the thunderstorms develop along the leading edge of the rainband.
Will the rain continue in Melbourne?
Heavy rainfall is expected to continue throughout today as the low-pressure system remains relatively stationary. Residents should monitor local weather alerts for updates on when the system is expected to clear.
Are other parts of Australia affected?
Yes, the weather event is impacting south-east Australia, including northern and eastern Victoria and the south-east corner of New South Wales. Rain in South Australia has largely eased to showers.
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Last checked Oct 2, 2026 at 10:15 PM. Trends move fast, so details may change. How we work
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